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关键词

可靠性 10

地震预测 5

可靠度 3

可靠性灵敏度 3

多目标优化 3

预测 3

人工智能 2

优化设计 2

储层预测 2

发展 2

可靠性分析 2

可靠性设计 2

可靠性；维修性；保障性；指标量化 2

地震 2

地震预报 2

机器学习 2

电动汽车 2

神经网络 2

稳健设计 2

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Reliability prediction and its validation for nuclear power units in service

Jinyuan SHI,Yong WANG

《能源前沿（英文）》 2016年第10卷第4期页码 479-488 doi: 10.1007/s11708-016-0425-7

摘要： In this paper a novel method for reliability prediction and validation of nuclear power units in service is proposed. The equivalent availability factor is used to measure the reliability, and the equivalent availability factor deducting planed outage hours from period hours and maintenance factor are used for the measurement of inherent reliability. By statistical analysis of historical reliability data, the statistical maintenance factor and the undetermined parameter in its numerical model can be determined. The numerical model based on the maintenance factor predicts the equivalent availability factor deducting planed outage hours from period hours, and the planed outage factor can be obtained by using the planned maintenance days. Using these factors, the equivalent availability factor of nuclear power units in the following 3 years can be obtained. Besides, the equivalent availability factor can be predicted by using the historical statistics of planed outage factor and the predicted equivalent availability factor deducting planed outage hours from period hours. The accuracy of the reliability prediction can be evaluated according to the comparison between the predicted and statistical equivalent availability factors. Furthermore, the reliability prediction method is validated using the nuclear power units in North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) and China. It is found that the relative errors of the predicted equivalent availability factors for nuclear power units of NERC and China are in the range of –2.16% to 5.23% and –2.15% to 3.71%, respectively. The method proposed can effectively predict the reliability index in the following 3 years, thus providing effective reliability management and maintenance optimization methods for nuclear power units.

关键词： nuclear power units in service reliability reliability prediction equivalent availability factors

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An exploratory study for predicting component reliability with new load conditions

Zhengwei HU, Xiaoping DU

《机械工程前沿（英文）》 2019年第14卷第1期页码 76-84 doi: 10.1007/s11465-018-0522-x

摘要： Reliability is important to design innovation. A new product should be not only innovative, but also reliable. For many existing components used in the new product, their reliability will change because the applied Loads are different from the ones for which the components are originally designed and manufactured. Then the new reliability must be re-evaluated. The system designers of the new product, however, may not have enough information to perform this task. With a beam problem as a case study, this study explores a feasible way to re-evaluate the component reliability with new Loads given the following information: The original reliability of the component with respect to the component Loads and the distributions of the new component Loads. Physics-based methods are employed to build the equivalent component limit-state function that can predict the component failure under the new Loads. Since the information is limited, the re-evaluated component reliability is given by its maximum and minimum values. The case study shows that good accuracy can be obtained even though the new reliability is provided with the aforementioned interval.

关键词： reliability component failure mode prediction random variable

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A reliability growth model for 300?MW pumped-storage power units

Jinyuan SHI , Yu YANG , Zhicheng DENG ,

《能源前沿（英文）》 2009年第3卷第3期页码 337-340 doi: 10.1007/s11708-009-0032-y

摘要： A reliability growth model for pumped-storage power units is presented. Ways for estimating and fitting on checking the model’s parameters are given together with analysis results concerning the reliability growth of 300MW pumped-storage power units. On site operation, reliability data show that the reliability growth model conforms to rules of reliability growth tendency. Analysis results of reliability growth indicate that measures taken for improving maintenance and operation by the pumped-storage power companies are effective and that the reliability of the 300MW pumped-storage power units exhibits a rising tendency.

关键词： pump-storage power unit availability reliability growth reliability prediction

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面向维修的机械系统可靠度预测与仿真研究

黄良沛,尹喜云,岳文辉

《中国工程科学》 2007年第9卷第12期页码 69-74

摘要：机电产品在服役期间因零件失效而产生故障，重组维修破坏了原有的系统可靠性模型，因而需要对设备可靠性问题重新进行研究和评价。基于机电系统中零件的失效时间分布密度函数，研究了在重组维护过程中机电系统服役期间零件年龄结构的分布规律，发展了机电系统可靠性数学模型。通过仿真研究，探讨了系统服役期间年龄结构、可靠度和失效率的发展规律，定量地研究了失效时间分布密度函数的参数对系统可靠度的影响。这对于评估机械系统的可靠性和全生命周期的失效率，制定合理的维修策略具有重要意义。

关键词：重组维修；可靠度预测；年龄分布；失效率

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Current status and prospects of reliability systems engineering in China

《工程管理前沿（英文）》 2021年第8卷第4期页码 492-502 doi: 10.1007/s42524-021-0172-2

摘要： This study provides a systematic overview of the advent and evolution of reliability systems engineering (RSE) in China, and the latest RSE development, that is, model-based RSE (MBRSE), is emphatically introduced. The establishment of the system architecture and conceptual models of MBRSE is first described. The fundamental theory and methodology of MBRSE are then elaborated, with a V-model as the core of this approach. The development of various MBRSE platforms and the effectiveness of their implementation over the past 30 years are presented. The prospective trends in the development of RSE in China are outlined.

关键词： reliability effectiveness model-based systems engineering reliability systems engineering

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Human reliability in maintenance task

Pacaiova HANA,

《机械工程前沿（英文）》 2010年第5卷第2期页码 184-188 doi: 10.1007/s11465-010-0002-4

摘要： Maintenance management requirements have another dimension in the present as in the past. Looking for the optimal tools of decision processing is hard. The current concepts have represented the integration of theoretical, technical, and management tools whose applications need actual modification. Technical measurements are expensive and take a long time/term, and it is hard to estimate the economical returns. This paper presents the concept of a maintenance management task and its function in preventing major accidents. The importance of considering the reliability of maintenance tasks and the method to reach it are also discussed in this paper.

关键词： maintenance risk assessment failure reliability prevention

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An overview of the reliability metrics for power grids and telecommunication networks

《工程管理前沿（英文）》 2021年第8卷第4期页码 531-544 doi: 10.1007/s42524-021-0167-z

摘要： Power grids deliver energy, and telecommunication networks transmit information. These two facilities are critical to human society. In this study, we conduct a comprehensive overview of the development of reliability metrics for power grids and telecommunication networks. The main purpose of this review is to promote and support the formulation of communication network reliability metrics with reference to the development of power grid reliability. We classify the metrics of power grid into the reliability of power distribution and generation/transmission and the metrics of telecommunication network into connectivity-based, performance-based, and state-based metrics. Then, we exhibit and discuss the difference between the situations of the reliability metrics of the two systems. To conclude this study, we conceive a few topics for future research and development for telecommunication network reliability metrics.

关键词： reliability metrics power grids telecommunication networks

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System reliability and system resilience

《工程管理前沿（英文）》 2021年第8卷第4期页码 615-619 doi: 10.1007/s42524-021-0176-y

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Special issue: Reliability management of complex system

《工程管理前沿（英文）》 2021年第8卷第4期页码 477-479 doi: 10.1007/s42524-021-0175-z

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Reliability design method for steam turbine blades

SHI Jinyuan

《能源前沿（英文）》 2008年第2卷第4期页码 363-368 doi: 10.1007/s11708-008-0073-7

摘要： Based on theories of probability and statistics, and taking static stresses, dynamic stresses, endurance strength, safety ratios, vibration frequencies and exciting force frequencies of blades as random variables, a reliability design method for steam turbine blades is presented. The purport and calculation method for blade reliability are expounded. The distribution parameters of random variables are determined after analysis and numerical calculation of test data. The fatigue strength and the vibration design reliability of turbine blades are determined with the aid of a probabilistic design method and by interference models for stress distribution and strength distribution. Some blade reliability design calculation formulas for a dynamic stress design method, a safety ratio design method for fatigue strength, and a vibration reliability design method for the first and second types of tuned blades and a packet of blades on a disk connected closely, are given together with some practical examples. With these methods, the design reliability of steam turbine blades can be guaranteed in the design stage. This research may provide some scientific basis for reliability design of steam turbine blades.

关键词： design reliability force probability purport reliability design

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Principle of maximum entropy for reliability analysis in the design of machine components

Yimin ZHANG

《机械工程前沿（英文）》 2019年第14卷第1期页码 21-32 doi: 10.1007/s11465-018-0512-z

摘要： We studied the reliability of machine components with parameters that follow an arbitrary statistical distribution using the principle of maximum entropy (PME). We used PME to select the statistical distribution that best fits the available information. We also established a probability density function (PDF) and a failure probability model for the parameters of mechanical components using the concept of entropy and the PME. We obtained the first four moments of the state function for reliability analysis and design. Furthermore, we attained an estimate of the PDF with the fewest human bias factors using the PME. This function was used to calculate the reliability of the machine components, including a connecting rod, a vehicle half-shaft, a front axle, a rear axle housing, and a leaf spring, which have parameters that typically follow a non-normal distribution. Simulations were conducted for comparison. This study provides a design methodology for the reliability of mechanical components for practical engineering projects.

关键词： machine components reliability arbitrary distribution parameter principle of maximum entropy

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模板辅助合成半导体金属氧化物气敏纳米材料的合理设计：综述 Research Article

关云川1,刘渝2,周可1,李强3,王团结3,李辉3

《信息与电子工程前沿（英文）》 2023年第24卷第7期页码 964-979 doi: 10.1631/FITEE.2200488

摘要：磁盘故障预测方法在单一问题上的解决方案十分成熟，例如磁盘异构问题、模型老化问题和小样本问题。然而，由于这些问题经常同时存在，只能处理其中一个问题的模型在实际预测中存在偏差。目前针对不同问题的解决方案经常相互冲突，然而现有磁盘故障预测方法通常简单地融合各种模型，缺乏在面对多个问题时对训练数据准备和学习模式的讨论。为此，提出一种多属性数据划分方法（MDP），来探索针对多个问题的训练数据准备。引入与模型无关的元学习算法（MAML），对被划分的多个数据子集进行多任务学习。基于这些改进，提出一种名为MDP-MAML的磁盘故障预测模型。MDP解决了数据不均匀划分和按时间划分的挑战，而MAML解决了针对多个问题小样本学习的问题。此外，MDP-MAML能够适应新出现的问题并进行学习和预测。在两个实际数据中心的数据集上，与最先进方法相比，MDP-MAML将曲线下面积（AUC）从0.85提升至0.89，将误检率（FDR）从0.85提升至0.91，将误报率（FAR）从4.88%降低至2.85%。

关键词：存储系统可靠性；磁盘故障预测；自我监测、分析及报告技术（SMART）；机器学习

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A PDEM-based perspective to engineering reliability: From structures to lifeline networks

Jie LI

《结构与土木工程前沿（英文）》 2020年第14卷第5期页码 1056-1065 doi: 10.1007/s11709-020-0636-1

摘要： Research of reliability of engineering structures has experienced a developing history for more than 90 years. However, the problem of how to resolve the global reliability of structural systems still remains open, especially the problem of the combinatorial explosion and the challenge of correlation between failure modes. Benefiting from the research of probability density evolution theory in recent years, the physics-based system reliability researches open a new way for bypassing this dilemma. The present paper introduces the theoretical foundation of probability density evolution method in view of a broad background, whereby a probability density evolution equation for probability dissipative system is deduced. In conjunction of physical equations and structural failure criteria, a general engineering reliability analysis frame is then presented. For illustrative purposes, several cases are studied which prove the value of the proposed engineering reliability analysis method.

关键词： PDEM reliability structure lifeline networks

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Bridging reliability and operations management for superior system availability: Challenges and opportunities

《工程管理前沿（英文）》页码 391-405 doi: 10.1007/s42524-022-0206-4

摘要： Recently, firms have begun to handle the design, manufacturing, and maintenance of capital goods through a consolidated mechanism called the integrated product-service system. This new paradigm enables firms to deliver high-reliability products while lowering the ownership cost. Hence, holistic optimization models must be proposed for jointly allocating reliability, maintenance, and spare parts inventory across the entire value chain. In the existing literature, these decisions are often made fragmentally, thus resulting in local optimality. This study reviews the extant works pertaining to reliability-redundancy allocation, preventative maintenance, and spare parts logistics models. We discuss the challenges and opportunities of consolidating these decisions under an integrated reliability-maintenance-inventory framework for attaining superior system availability. Specific interest is focused on the new product introduction phase in which firms face a variety of uncertainties, including installed base, usage, reliability, and trade policy. The goal is to call for tackling the integrated reliability-maintenance-inventory allocation model under a nonstationary operating condition. Finally, we place the integrated allocation model in the semiconductor equipment industry and show how the firm deploys reliability initiatives and after-sale support logistics to ensure the fleet uptime for its global customers.

关键词： system availability product-service integration installed base new product introduction service supply chain reliability-maintenance-inventory optimization

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Evaluation of the contract reliability for alternative infrastructure project delivery: a contract engineering

Bing WANG, Qingbin CUI, Shuibo ZHANG

《工程管理前沿（英文）》 2019年第6卷第2期页码 239-248 doi: 10.1007/s42524-019-0018-3

摘要： Governments at all levels are increasingly motivating the private sector to participate in infrastructure development using alternative project delivery methods to relieve financial burden. When designing contracts, governments usually offer incentives while requiring cost or time guarantee to balance project attractiveness to the private sector and fair protection of public interest. However, a practical and critical problem is how to properly design these provisions. Although previous studies have investigated the value of these provisions, a knowledge gap still exists with respect to methods of fairly and effectively designing such provisions. This study fills this gap by developing a methodology that analyzes the appropriateness of guarantee or warranty provisions for contracts. In this study, a contract reliability index is constructed, and a process of evaluating contract reliability is proposed. The New Mexico Highway 44 project, in which three warranty provision arrangements are investigated, is used as a case study to illustrate the analysis process. Results show that although a ceiling clause can effectively motivate the private sector to participate in the project, it sacrifices a significant amount of public benefits. By contrast, although a warranty option can protect public benefits, it cannot effectively incentivize the private sector. A combination of the ceiling clause and the warranty option will therefore result in improved contract provision design. The proposed methodology in this study is especially useful for governments in properly determining contract clauses in infrastructure development.

关键词： infrastructure development contract design contract reliability guarantee provision contract engineering